Speculation in music industry in 2015: some thoughts

Speculation when just clues are given. We are living the “Share it all” generation, where ALL is captured and shared on the social media, there can be no secret almost on anything. So, why, despite all, sometimes you still have rumors in the show business?

The reasons for still speculating. There shouldn’t be any reason for speculating, as all is crystal clear, often described in every detail, all is shared. There is almost no way anybody today can say “Oh, I didn’t know it” or “Oh, I didn’t hear that”. The investment on the development and the growth of the social media cost billions of dollars, the mass media are a status symbol, I mean everyone has a more or less updated cell phone. I think behind the reason for speculating on that 1% of things we don’t know is for purely for gossiping, or pure fun. When speculation becomes morbid, when it gets stalking, speculation must be stopped.

Who loves speculating? A picture, a word, a misunderstood official snippet:  they are basically the ways speculation kicks off. I guess both naïve and smart people fall in temptation to spread the word. The naïve ones seem to don’t realize they’re living in a speculating debate, where the smarter guys they recognize it and just let it go, they don’t want to build up an industry from it. I think it’s not a matter of “love speculating”: it’s a natural, “biological” thing; apparently there are never “plots”, or “wicked plans” to manufacture and package the speculation. Fandom grows excited when speculating; the artists are aware of what their fans chat about and they love seeing it, and unbeknown to themselves, they encourage it.

Who gains from spreading rumors and from hearing rumors? When there is no news to discuss on, the only source is the rumors. The one who first spreads the rumors is the subject of my “identikit”: I think he’s a fan, he’s one frustrated of not hearing news and he, after looking at the latest he knows, customizes a brand new news item, half a way between reality and his own dreams. He ponders on what he’s got in mind, he decides that the other fans would love hearing that and finally makes his mind up to put it on the social media, in order to spread it. The effects aren’t always positive: rumors very often remain rumors, so the idea of spreading the fake news/rumors gets a mistake. The rest of the fans might rather have official news, for they tend to dismiss the supporters of rumors. Fans might not like the idea that a rumor can be believed more than the official sources should be and this creates more frustration, which is expressed with anger towards the rumors supporters. The most recent example is an Italian Duranie mum, who claims his son works behind the scenes of Expo 2015, the Milan International Fair, and she said he knows the band is scheduled to perform in July somewhere in Milan. It is still a f*cking rumor, denied so far officially by the Expo Bureau and never confirmed by the band entourage. This mum is still trying to shake up the rest of the fandom by “shouting out” this news item periodically, but the only effect is that nobody listens to her any longer.

I’m a longtime fan and given my long time “experience in the field” the big events are the magnets for speculation: people naturally tend to guess and to spread rumors. This blog wasn’t meant to say that speculation is a negative thing, or that speculation is never to happen: I just tried to analyze the phenomenon.

I can end by saying that in this particular time of my music fanship, I’ve never been very patient when asked to wait for new releases, new events, new shows, but… I did wait and it was worth doing it!

DD TV xx

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